Volatility Watch

This spike in volatility escalated quicker than I expected. I was expecting something next week. This was driven in part by the Trump tax plan delay and jitters in the Nikkei and Europe. The short VIX crowd is something I have been talking about for quite some time. At some point they will capitulate and run for the exit.

SVXY daily could be a double top. Price is 74% above the monthly kijun sen. That gap will close at some point. If this daily price gets below the kumo, that is when there is serious chance of downside in stocks. A pull back in SVXY but still above the kumo, is just more of  a correction in stocks rather than a full blown reversal.

VIX daily lifted off support but was hammered back down. The MACD is on the center line. If the MACD gets above the center line, then you can see some downside in stocks. The VIX shows the implied volatility in the options market, so not a direct correlation to the stock market index.

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