These are a few of the charts that I am looking at in the week ahead. I want to show that there is more to analysis than you might think. The more information we have at hand, there higher our probability is going to be of having a successful trade. If you just have a punt on a trade you will lose your money. Maybe not straight away but eventually you will. We must use proper analysis and risk reward strategies in order to maximize our outcome. I am not interested in picking the exact bottom or the exact top. What I want to trade is the meaty part in the middle. The majority of losses occur when traders try to trade tops and bottoms. It is a fools game. We only want low risk, high probability trades.
We may have the bearish catalyst that I have been looking for coming into May. BoJ pulled up short and the Fed is turning more dove and less hawk. Precious metals are picking up on this sentiment. Bonds are also picking up on this sentiment.
Bullish Percent Index daily is right on the verge of going bearish with a cross below the 50 RSI. We should see confirmation on Monday. We also cannot rule out a bounce from here on Monday.
New York Stock Exchange weekly is showing that we have a possible double top but the RSI is still well above 50. The MACD is also showing strong upside momentum. Not indicative of a reversal yet.
S&P 500 futures ETF weekly is showing a possible double top. There was an increase in volume on Friday. PPO is turning over. Cannot rule out some consolidation under resistance in the week ahead. Not a confirmed reversal yet.
Volatility Index daily is testing resistance. It is on the kumo bottom. See if we get a test of the uptrend resistance.
S&P 500 with $SPXA200R indicator weekly. We can see the resistance was respected but the indicator is above the point of control.
S&P 500 Index with Junk Bond ETF and 15 day MA daily. We can see here that JNK is above the 15 day MA and is in strong uptrend. This is not indicative of reversal in $SPX.
NASDAQ daily showing a head and shoulders pattern. No break below the kumo yet. Cannot rule out a bounce from here in the week ahead.
Russell 2000 Index daily. We have a potential double top here.
VIX Short Term Futures ETF daily. We can see that we have a small bounce off key support on Friday. Price still below the kijun sen.
New York Stock Exchange McClellan Oscillator daily. We can see the smart money just tipped into neutral/bearish on Friday. This is often a leading indicator.
S&P 500 weekly multiple lower highs. We cannot rule out consolidation under resistance here in the week ahead. Still some upside momentum.
S&P 500, oil, Junk Bonds, $USDJPY daily correlation. We can see here that the $USDJPY plunged on the lack of action from the BoJ. This has contributed to the weakness in the $SPX. Junk bonds and oil are still bullish.
Vanguard Total Market Fund weekly. We can see there was a head and shoulders pattern followed by the lower low, lower high pattern. A very bearish setup if confirmed in the week ahead. Cannot rule out consolidation below resistance in the week ahead. Not a confirmed reversal yet.
Dow Jones Industrial Index verses Dow Jones Transportation Index weekly. We can see here that there could be a potential double top on transports. See if we get a continuation in the week ahead.
Dow Jones Futures ETF daily. We have a potential double top here. Price ended the week on the kijun sen. See if we get a follow through on Monday.
U.S. Crude Oil daily. This chart has a potential double top resistance. This could be a catalyst for the bearish case should we get a rejection from here in the week ahead.