Dollar Index

There are a few small FX trade setups this week but there is some work to do before we get a good look at some decent trading conditions. Yellen had a speaking engagement on Sunday, which saw the $USD catch a small bid this week. Bonds came off a touch. Have to watch closely.

I was put onto Macro Voices podcasts recently. They are well worth listening to. There is a 4 part series of which two parts have been released. Do yourself a favour and listen to these podcasts.

parts 1&2 of 4 in the series.

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Double Supertrend

This is my double supertrend indicator rules and template. Watch the video. Save the template to your Trading View by following the instruction video on my You Tube. Then start by trading with the indicator on a demo account while you get to know it.

You start with this basic double supertrend indicator. Then you can go on and try my main method using my Ichimoku system that I created.

The rules are very basic. This indicator is for trend following.

See the video here for the instructions about how the indicator works.

RULES VIDEO HERE

See the template here and follow the instructions on the video about how to save the template to your Trading View.

TEMPLATE LINK HERE

Watch the video and then look at these charts for reference.

NFLX mth

NFLX week

NFLX day

NFLX 4hr

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Gold Silver Copper Oil Update

I just love to look at the Fibonacci levels on charts. It is something that can be very helpful and when you get used to seeing these levels you will see them without even needing the measuring tool. I do just check the level with the chart tool to confirm it. Most times it is dead on like in these examples below. If you are only in trading to make money, chances are you most likely wont make money.

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Crypto’s Update

Today’s lesson is about taking my own advice. I looked at my old Twitter account, that I stopped posting on about 12 mths ago and what do I see? My second last post was Bitcoin weekly. My comment was something like “watch this rip on this breakout”. Oh it ripped just a little bit, a modest 675% in that 12 mths. I managed to get on a few sneaky trades on Bitcoin and Ethereum for quite a good profit in that time though. As they say, everyone has 20/20 hindsight.

Bitcoin weekly November 2nd 2016. I knew this was a classic breakout when it got back above the weekly kumo, but the future was still very uncertain for Bitcoin at this time.

Bitcoin weekly currently with a nice breakout last week. Usually the pattern has been break then consolidation, rinse and repeat. That first arrow was my last Bitcoin post twitter.

Ethereum weekly is in consolidation still.

Litecoin is still in consolidation.

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Super Easy Double Super Trend

This indicator is one that I made for people who trade crypto currencies who wanted an easy form of technical analysis. It turns out that it works great on stocks or anything for that matter. It is super easy to use because there are only a few simple rules to follow.

I will be doing a video about it and I will make the template available free if you want to try it. You should get this in an instant. It really is super easy if you follow the basic rules.

The rules are very simple, however this is only for trending trades either long or short.

  • The weekly must be crossed in the direction you want to trade.
  • The daily entry and exits are as shown. The entry is the break above resistance.
  • The red line is the stop. You just trail it manually once or twice during the trading session. Lets the stop do the work for you.

  • You can use the 4hr to add to a trade on the way up for longer term buy and holds.

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What’s Up?

I saw this front cover of The Economist magazine recently asking are asset prices too high? The answer in my mind is yes and no. Asset prices are too high but that does not mean that they can go higher. When you see a front cover like this one on October 7th it does make me think that we must be due at least for a correction. It is just a matter of time. All you can do is proceed with caution.

Lets see how things go this week.

Here on this finviz map that I made we can see risk assets in stocks are well over due for a correction at least in the short term.

On the bottom two lines I have shown the safe-haven assets in bonds, yen and gold. The safe-haven assets were bid into late last week which should suggest that profit taking in stocks in the very near future.

(source:finviz.com)

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ECB Headline Fatigue

If you are feeling ECB headline fatigue it will only get worse from here. The meeting on October 26th is said to be when we get the details of what lies ahead. In the meantime we can be ensured of a lot more rumours and doublespeak.

ECB pledge to keep rates low “well past” QE is key: Draghi

“FRANKFURT, Oct 12 (Reuters) – The European Central Bank’s pledge to keep interest rates at their current, record-low level “well past” the end of its bond-buying programme is very important for keeping borrowing costs at bay, ECB President Mario Draghi said on Thursday.

“The ‘well past’ is very, very important in anchoring rate expectations,” Draghi said at an event in Washington, weeks before the ECB is due to review its stimulus package and policy message. (Reporting By Francesco Canepa; Editing by Hugh Lawson)” (Source: Reuters )

EURUSD holds under resistance with lack of any clear direction ahead of the ECB meeting in a couple of weeks.
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Nikkei v USDJPY

This quote from Nick Leeson today was one of the funniest things I have seen this year.  I give this quote of the year.

“Nikkei225 at highest level today since 1996 – probably not far off my break-even point. If only they’d waited!!” ~ Nick Leeson. via twitter @TheNickLeeson 11/11/2017

(Pic-www.nickleeson.com) Nick Leeson the original Rogue Trader whose unchecked risk-taking and drive for success caused the collapse of Barings Bank in 1995.

Could this be a weekly double top of the Nikkei?

This is going to be very interesting to see who wins out of the Nikkei and USDJPY correlation. There is a 16% divergence at the moment with the yen on the rise at time of writing. This should be bearish for the Nikkei. Lets see.

We have seen a weekly double top before like this in early 2000 at this very level and it did not end well for the Nikkei with a fall of 63%. Just saying. Lets see.

 

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Charts Of Interest

Just a quick charts of interest. North Korea is planning more tests for next week so get ready for a tweet storm from Trump about the little rocket man.

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Small Caps

Russel 2000 small cap index is 23% above its monthly kijun sen. This will be very interesting to see over the next few weeks. Increased volatility is nothing to be feared. It should be welcomed.

IWM Russell 2000 ETF daily. Possible initial target down to the key support level.

RVX daily Russell VIX has been spiking for quite a few days now. The spike in mid July saw IWM test down to key support. This time there has been some lag. There is not a direct correlation between a volatility and the index it represents.

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